I recently discovered that my expectation about how a 9.0 earthquake has a 3 in 10 chance of happening in my area in the next fifty years was mistaken. It was mistaken because the idea about how there’s a “37% chance of the Cascadia quake being in the next half-century” is a popular myth, a myth that gives a false sense of security. The truth is that we shouldn’t be thinking about the likely date for when the Cascadia subduction zone breaks in terms of the next five decades, but in terms of the next two decades.
Much love and respect Comrade